SYDNEY – Australian consumers are tending to spend only when there are bargains to be had, as punishing home loan payments and cost of living pressures weigh on overall outlays, data from Westpac showed on Friday.
The Westpac Card Tracker Index stood at 137.2 for the week ending Jan. 13, up 3 index points from mid-December, but on a quarterly basis, spending fell as shoppers forked out less on services such as travel and dining out.
The base of 100 reflects average activity in 2019.
“The Christmas-New Year period has been a sporadic one for consumer-related card activity with bursts around key sales weeks followed by sharp pull-backs,” said Matthew Hassan, a senior economist at Westpac.
“The picture is broadly consistent with consumers more actively seeking out discounts to deal with cost of living pressures.”
Separate data from ANZ on Friday showed a solid seasonal uplift in non-food retail spending in the last quarter of the year thanks to the increasing popularity of Black Friday sales, but the level of spending remained low.
The official retail sales figures, due on Jan. 30, are likely to show consumer spending turned soft again after a jump in November, which would reinforce wagers that the Reserve Bank of Australia will not have to raise rates further in February.
All of Australia’s major banks have called a peak in interest rates. Both Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Westpac expect the first rate cut in September, while NAB and ANZ predict it will come in November.
“As we move into the second half of the year, we think that the combination of fiscal easing, slower inflation and a rate cut in November will support spending,” ANZ analysts said in a note. – Reuters
