It’s put up or shut up time for teams on the NCAA men’s tournament bubble.
Conference tournament week is upon us, and while winning league titles would solve all problems for those teams still uncertain about their place in the tournament field, it’s a very difficult task to pull it off. The next best thing would be to go on a run that involves multiple wins that boost their profile with the committee. On the negative side, losing the first game of the league tournament could be disastrous, and ultimately be the deciding factor in whether a team misses the field.
All of the teams on the bubble in the updated USA TODAY Sports Bracketology will begin their conference tournament quest Wednesday or Thursday, making it a crunch time for will secure the final spots in March Madness.
San Diego State
Record: 21-8 (14-6). NET Ranking: 51. Quad 1 record: 3-5. Projected seed: No. 11.
Quality wins: vs. Creighton (neutral), vs. Houston (neutral).
Bad losses: vs. UNLV (twice).
The Aztecs have dipped in the projected bracket and their chances making the tournament aren’t secure. The loss to UNLV hurt itself in the Quad 2 category and getting swept by the Rebels does a good amount of harm to the resume. San Diego State faces Boise State, another desperate team, in the quarterfinals of the Mountain West tournament. Win and it should feel much better about making the big dance.
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Virginia Commonwealth
Record: 25-6 (15-3). NET Ranking: 32. Quad 1 record: 1-1. Projected seed: No. 11.
Quality wins: at Dayton.
Bad losses: vs. Seton Hall (neutral), at Saint Louis.
It may be win the conference tournament or bust for the Rams after losing their regular-season finale to Dayton. The loss pushed the Quad 2 record to 5-4 and combined with the Quad 1, is 7-5, something that is tough for mid-major teams to overcome. VCU will be the No. 1 seed in the Atlantic 10 tournament and are in the quarterfinals, but even falling short in the conference title game in the nation’s capital could be enough to push it out of the tournament.
Ohio State
Record: 17-14 (9-11). NET Ranking: 37. Quad 1 record: 6-11. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).
Quality wins: vs. Kentucky (neutral), at Purdue, vs. Maryland.
Bad losses: vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Northwestern.
Ohio State had a real solid chance to get away from the bubble at Indiana on Saturday, but it collapsed in the second half and suffered its 11th Quad 1 loss. Even worse, the Buckeyes finished as the 10th team in the Big Ten, meaning it has to play in the first round of the conference tournament on Wednesday. The Buckeyes have to beat Iowa to start the week, and a a big challenge awaits in the second round in Illinois. Winning both games could be enough to secure a spot, but only one win will make it a very anxiety-filled Selection Sunday.
Oklahoma
Record: 19-12 (6-12). NET Ranking: 47. Quad 1 record: 6-10. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).
Quality wins: vs. Arizona (neutral), vs. Michigan (neutral), vs. Louisville (neutral), vs. Missouri.
Bad losses: vs. LSU.
No bubble team had a better week than Oklahoma. It picked up a much-needed Quad 1 wins against Missouri and Texas to get itself back in the First Four projection. The Quad 1 record looks better than it did a week ago, but adding to it will be the key to staying in the field. In the first round of the SEC tournament, the Sooners will play a red-hot Georgia team. Winning that and having a great performance against Kentucky in the second round is the path toward securing the first tournament bid since 2021.
Xavier
Record: 21-10 (13-7). NET Ranking: 44. Quad 1 record: 2-8. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).
Quality wins: at Marquette, vs. Connecticut, vs. Creighton.
Bad losses: at TCU, at Georgetown.
Xavier did everything right to end the regular season at least in the bubble, winning the last seven games on its schedule. While impressive, none helped the poor Quad 1 record and another notch in that department is needed. Luckily, the Musketeers get a chance to add to it in the Big East tournament quarterfinals against Marquette. Win and Xavier may be fine, lose and things get dicey.
Indiana
Record: 19-12 (10-10). NET Ranking: 52. Quad 1 record: 4-12. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).
Quality wins: at Michigan State, vs. Purdue.
Bad losses: at Iowa, at Northwestern.
Holding the final spot in the projected tournament is Indiana, which kept its place after a much-needed home win against Ohio State. While the 12 Quad 1 losses aren’t pretty, the 5-0 record in Quad 2 games certainly helps. The Hoosiers still need to do some work in the Big Ten tournament, and a lot is riding on the second-round matchup against Oregon. That game could ultimately decide their fate.
Boise State
Record: 22-9 (14-6). NET Ranking: 45. Quad 1 record: 2-5. Projected seed: First four out.
Quality wins: vs. Clemson, vs. St. Mary’s (neutral), vs. Utah State.
Bad losses: vs. Boston College (neutral), vs. Washington State.
The Broncos were surging toward a tournament spot, but a loss to Colorado State in the regular season finale has pushed Boise State out of the field. While the Rams finished second in the Mountain West, it was a Quad 2 loss and those are the type of results bubble teams can’t afford. It will have a tough first matchup in the Mountain West tournament against San Diego State in the quarterfinals, and the Broncos must win that and possibly in the semifinals to make the field.
Texas
Record: 17-14 (6-12). NET Ranking: 42. Quad 1 record: 5-10. Projected seed: First four out.
Quality wins: vs. Missouri, vs. Texas A&M, vs. Kentucky, at Mississippi State.
Bad losses: at South Carolina.
An extremely uncharacteristic night for the Longhorns against Oklahoma on Saturday resulted in Texas being pushed out of the bracket by its rival. Looking at the record, it’s hard to argue a 14-loss team should make the tournament, but Texas has done enough in the SEC to stay in consideration. The Longhorns need to beat Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament first round, beat rival Texas A&M again and possibly take down Tennessee in the quarterfinals. A verry difficult path for Rodney Terry’s team.
Colorado State
Record: 22-9 (16-4). NET Ranking: 54. Quad 1 record: 1-5. Projected seed: First four out.
Quality wins: at Boise State, vs. Utah State.
Bad losses: vs. UC Riverside, vs. Washington (neutral), at Colorado.
Welcome Colorado State to the bubble as the Rams ended the regular season on a seven-game win streak to enter the tournament picture. The last win at Boise State gave Colorado State its first Quad 1 win, something it desperately needed to get tournament consideration with its bad losses. While surging, the No. 2 seed in the Mountain West tournament will likely need to make the championship game − and possibly win it − in order to make the field.
North Carolina
Record: 20-12 (13-7). NET Ranking: 40. Quad 1 record: 1-11. Projected seed: First four out.
Quality wins: vs. UCLA (neutral), vs. SMU.
Bad losses: vs. Stanford.
The Tar Heels couldn’t make the most of their opportunity against Duke at home and the door is almost shut on their tournament chances. After ending the regular season with one win against a team projected to make the tournament. North Carolina is the No. 5 seed in the ACC tournament and will have to make the championship game to garner at-large consideration.
