ATLANTA — They dressed up the Roxy Theater as best they could and filled it with jersey-clad fans, a main event in search of a headliner.
Yet Major League Baseball’s draft more often than not comes up short in its search for a main character. And so it went Sunday night in the shadow of Truist Park.
The Washington Nationals upset the process, if you will, by choosing Oklahoma prep shortstop Eli Willits with the first pick, opting for the 17-year-old over his in-state legacy cohort, Ethan Holliday, and a slew of elite collegiate arms.
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And while the seat-fillers – not unlike a dance floor at a Super Bowl halftime show – did their level best to maintain their enthusiasm, whether booing commissioner Rob Manfred or cavorting with assembled team mascots, they were ultimately viewing a process rife with endless and unseen outcomes.
That’s how the draft’s always been, and while recent years have produced some buzzworthy picks that dovetailed nicely with MLB’s insistence on granting it a primetime slot (think: Paul Skenes), the draft on Sunday returned, stubbornly, to its old ways.
Here are five takeaways from the first day of baseball’s annual selection meeting:
Surprise party with Eli Willits at No. 1
Certainly, Willits’ selection raised a few eyebrows, though he met with the Nationals last month and it would stand to reason the club might look to avoid the Scott Boras-repped Holliday and save a few bucks from their bonus pool with a younger – just 17 – talent more likely to stick to shortstop.
“He was the guy we wanted all along,” says Nationals interim GM Mike DeBartolo.
Sure. Yet the first round really went sideways when the Los Angeles Angels veered away from everyone’s projections to snag UC Santa Barbara right-hander Tyler Bremner, who lurked near the top of draft boards all winter before getting off to a slow start in Goleta.
But he finished strong, even as he pitched under the radar while SEC darlings Kade Anderson and Liam Doyle starred in the NCAA postseason. The Mariners were surely thrilled to see Anderson available at No. 3; with the club desperate to make the playoffs this season, Anderson may figure in sooner rather than later.
The domino effect: Holliday to four (Colorado), Aiva Arquette to seven (Miami) and Billy Carlson 10th (Chicago White Sox), three elite shortstops tumbling as a result of one club jumping the board.
Yet to the uninitiated, that’s simply the MLB draft, baby. Check back in five years to see if the Angels were brilliantly pragmatic or foolishly counterintuitive.
No wonder they were all no-shows
Speaking of which, you might have noticed there was no one for Manfred to bro hug. Yep, after years of trying largely in vain to lure top prospects to attend the draft in person, the league came up totally dry this time.
Long gone is the day Mike Trout wandered down to MLB Network’s Secaucus studios, all by himself, and waited it out for the Angels to take him 27th overall and then become the greatest player of the decade. One of one, indeed.
Yet it’s also easy to see why draftees stay away, beyond the Boras-driven reason to not cede any bargaining leverage. Unlike their NFL and NBA counterparts, whose biggest draft night decisions involve whether to go suit or open collar fit, it’s often business time for these kids.
It wouldn’t be surprising if Willits or Bremner or any number of picks who might have climbed some draft boards were on the phone with clubs right up to the clock running out, hammering out slices of signing pools as clubs seek flexibility.
Better to do all that in the comfort of their great room, surrounded by friends, even if your time in the green room isn’t projected to be long.
Pirates building super rotation with Seth Hernandez
Despite the relative chaos of the first five picks, No. 6 unfolded as anticipated: Seth Hernandez, the 6-foot-5 beast from a decorated Corona High School program, is headed to Pittsburgh.
And the notion of pairing Hernandez with Skenes and top prospect Bubba Chandler is perhaps the closest thing resembling hope at PNC Park since Johnny Cueto dropped the ball.
Oh, Hernandez presents immense risk: His status as a right-handed prep pitcher likely diminished his chance as the No. 1 overall pick, despite a 98-mph fastball and pro-caliber changeup. Yet Hernandez certainly has the stuff, makeup and track record to move quickly.
Will Skenes be around to greet him in Pittsburgh? Yes, the notions of a Skenes trade are premature and somewhat absurd, but that won’t be the case two winters from now.
Skenes will likely have four seasons of service time under his belt by the earliest point Hernandez could bubble up from the minors. With each passing year and Skenes’ continued good health, it grows exceedingly unlikely the Pirates can sign him to an extension.
So, come 2028, Skenes and Hernandez might join forces, even if just for a year or two. And whether big fella leaves for nine-figure free agent riches, swinging big and betting on Hernandez’s arm was the right move for Pittsburgh.
High school is cool again
One year after teams made draft history by using the first eight selections on collegiate players, the preps bounced back in a big way this year, accounting for the No. 1 overall pick, three of the top six and six of the top 10.
What does it all mean?
Well, it enhances the chances 2024 was something of a blip wrought by a shortened 2020 draft and a moderate COVID-19 hangover that compelled more top talents to attend college – or stay there.
And as draft bonus pools swell, the lure of a high seven-figure payday and a faster path to the big leagues can still outweight the lure of campus life and the NIL payday that might come with it.
Corona High School was all that
So, just how good was St. John Bosco High School’s team?
It’s a question nobody’s asking but is worth pondering since the SoCal parochial school more associated with high school greatness took down the dominant Hernandez and the Panthers in the semifinals of the Southern Section playoffs.
And yeah, perhaps Corona will still go down as one of the greatest squads of all time. After all, they had three players selected in the top 32 picks.
Hernandez was followed later by shortstop Carlson, who went 10th to the Chicago White Sox. And Brady Ebel, son of Los Angeles Dodgers third base coach Dino Ebel, narrowly missed garnering a historic third first round selection for the school. He was picked 32nd overall by Milwaukee.
Assuming all sign, Vanderbilt (Hernandez), Tennessee (Carlson) and LSU (Ebel) will miss out on premier talent.
And through 32 picks, the leaders in players picked were:
Tennessee: Four
Corona High School: Three
Arkansas: Two
Wake Forest: Two
Can a high school join the SEC? Makes you wonder.
