Penn State, Clemson, Notre Dame and multiple teams from the SEC high in the US LBM Coaches Poll are expected to pace the Bowl Subdivision in the USA TODAY Sports record projections for every college football team entering the 2025 season.
The Nittany Lions and Tigers are the projected winners of the Big Ten and ACC, respectively. Texas tops the SEC, one game ahead of Georgia and Alabama. Kansas State is the pick to win the Big 12.
The Fighting Irish are projected to lose just one game during the regular season and earn one of the top at-large seeds to the College Football Playoff.
In the Group of Five, the projected conference champions are Tulane (American), Boise State (Mountain West), James Madison (Sun Belt), Toledo (MAC) and Liberty (Conference USA).
Here’s how we have the FBS shaking out when the season kicks off this Saturday:
Big Ten
Penn State, Ohio State and Oregon are clearly ahead of the pack in the Big Ten, though the league could have another three or four teams fighting for nine or more wins and the playoff late in the season. The Buckeyes would still make the playoff with losses to Texas, Penn State and one other Big Ten opponent. Any small stumble from these favorites could open a door for Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Nebraska or Iowa.
SEC
The rowdiest conference in the FBS could end up with any one of Texas, Georgia, Alabama or even LSU winning the SEC and earning the top spot in the final playoff rankings. The Longhorns and Arch Manning will draw plenty of attention. Alabama will be better in coach Kalen DeBoer’s second year and could end up the best team in the country. Big years for coaches Hugh Freeze and Sam Pittman are not projected to go very well.
ACC
Clemson, Miami, and then everyone else. The Tigers and quarterback Cade Klubnik are eyeballing not just another ACC crown but the program’s third national championship under Dabo Swinney. Miami needs a big year from transfer Carson Beck. Keep tabs on Louisville and SMU as possible at-large playoff teams. And look for a rebound from Florida State after a disastrous 2024.
Big 12
Good luck picking this one. Kansas State is the front-runner by a whisper behind defending conference champion Arizona State, transfer-heavy Texas Tech, TCU, Utah and Iowa State. Look for as many as six or seven teams to make a run at the top spot. The depth in this league is noticeable: Brigham Young, Kansas, Houston and others are very solid, well-coached teams capable of knocking off other Power Four competition in non-conference play.
Independent
Notre Dame may be favored in nearly every game and could run the table by avoiding the Northern Illinois-like slipups that have hampered the program under Marcus Freeman. The Irish need to break in a new starting quarterback but are loaded across the board. Connecticut is going places under coach Jim Mora and should get back to bowl eligibility.
American
Tulane is established as the top team in the American and, along with Boise State, the odds-on favorite to earn an at-large playoff bid. The Green Wave will face a big threat from Memphis. Alabama-Birmingham comes in last heading into what looks like coach Trent Dilfer’s final season.
Mountain West
Once again, it’s Boise State and UNLV followed by a big chunk of teams scrambling for seven or eight wins. The Broncos have a huge hole to replace at running back but are still constructed to win the league and make the playoff. Behind this top pair are an experienced Air Force team and what looks like another strong San Jose State team.
Sun Belt
There are a handful of strong Group of Five teams atop the Sun Belt, starting with James Madison, Louisiana-Lafayette, Texas State and Georgia Southern. JMU is the preseason front-runner heading into coach Bob Chesney’s second year. One team expected to take a big step back is Marshall.
MAC
On paper, Toledo has the talent, depth and coaching to be the team to beat. But the MAC is always tricky; teams such as Ohio, Miami (Ohio) and Buffalo are right behind, and there’s typically at least one unexpected contender that makes a run at the conference championship game. That team won’t be Kent State, widely expected to once again finish dead last in the FBS.
Conference USA
Liberty remains the favorite even after losing quarterback Kaidon Salter to Colorado. But Western Kentucky should be explosive offensively and contend for nine or more wins. FBS newcomers Delaware and Missouri State will land near the bottom of the conference.
Pac-12
The two-member Pac-12, which will grow in 2026, features a home-and-home set between Oregon State and Washington State in November. The Beavers play four Power Four teams in September before the schedule eases up in the second half.
